Total Quarterback Hits allowed through Week 6:
NO: 17
CAR, DET: 18
CHI: 19
LAR: 20
NYJ: 21
CIN: 23
PIT: 24
LAC: 25
MIA, TEN, WAS: 28
BAL, NE: 29
TB: 34
OAK: 35
JAX, SEA: 36
ARI, KC: 37
DAL, GB: 38
BUF: 39
IND, NYG: 40
DEN, SF: 42
MIN: 43
PHI: 48
ATL, CLE: 49
HOU: 70— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) October 17, 2018
Now, immediately battle lines were drawn. The supporters ranted against the offensive line or the play calling of Bill O’Brian. Detractors pointed to Watson holding the ball for a long period of time.
In the spirit of fairness, and truth in advertising, I decided to look to the data and found some interesting things.
First, let’s look back at the average time to throw by NFL quarterbacks in 2018. So far, DeShaun Watson is second on the list at 3.10 seconds, behind Josh Allen (3.15s). Clearly, he is holding the ball far longer than the average quarterback (2.73s). Sam Bradford (2.51s) and Drew Brees (2.53s) hold the ball the shortest of anyone in the NFL - almost 0.57s shorter than Watson, which is nearly 21% of total pocket time by an average quarterback. Put another way, Watson holds the ball 123% as long as Drew Brees.
This means the offensive line is blocking for the equivalent of five downs for every four Brees’ line blocks. One extra down to allow defense to find the QB and result in a negative play.
However, all is not on Watson for holding the ball. Watching games, he is often scrambling. The porous line play has forced some of this. Watson has been hit, as previously mentioned, a cringe-worthy 70 times. That is once every 9.61 seconds - far more than “second place” Marcus Mariota at once every 11.21 seconds. To put this into perspective, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and Ben Roethlisberger have all been hit once every 28 seconds or more. Poor Watson is out there getting hit three times for every once Roethlisberger gets hit. It’s amazing Watson is alive.
This look at the numbers has shown a few other things as well. First, it’s fashionable to pile on Eli Manning as a slow, ball-holding, non-mobile quarterback who needs to go so the Giants can all of a sudden be better. Reality shows a far different story. Manning holds the ball 2.61 seconds (shorter than average) yet has been hit 40 times over the first 6 games. That’s once every 15.01 seconds. He’s the 10th fastest quarterback to get the ball out of his hand, yet he’s the 5th most hit quarterback this season. Clearly, most of Manning’s issues reside with the lack of an offensive line. Now, he ISN’T mobile, and therefore his Average Intended Air Yards is only 6.9 per pass, and Average Completed Air Yards is 4.6. To compensate for his lack of legs, and because the Giants’ offensive line is so horrible, Manning has turned to quick routes not far downfield. It takes time for deep routes to develop, and he doesn’t have that time.
Compare to DeShaun Watson: As a result of his swifter self, he holds the ball longer and attempts slightly longer passes (IAY: 9.7) and completes them (CAY 7.3).
So, next time you hear an announcer say Manning needs to go, remind yourself how horrible it would be if he was replaced with a younger, less experienced quarterback that held the ball too long. That kid might be dead from all the hits.
In the spirit of fairness, and truth in advertising, I decided to look to the data and found some interesting things.
First, let’s look back at the average time to throw by NFL quarterbacks in 2018. So far, DeShaun Watson is second on the list at 3.10 seconds, behind Josh Allen (3.15s). Clearly, he is holding the ball far longer than the average quarterback (2.73s). Sam Bradford (2.51s) and Drew Brees (2.53s) hold the ball the shortest of anyone in the NFL - almost 0.57s shorter than Watson, which is nearly 21% of total pocket time by an average quarterback. Put another way, Watson holds the ball 123% as long as Drew Brees.
This means the offensive line is blocking for the equivalent of five downs for every four Brees’ line blocks. One extra down to allow defense to find the QB and result in a negative play.
However, all is not on Watson for holding the ball. Watching games, he is often scrambling. The porous line play has forced some of this. Watson has been hit, as previously mentioned, a cringe-worthy 70 times. That is once every 9.61 seconds - far more than “second place” Marcus Mariota at once every 11.21 seconds. To put this into perspective, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and Ben Roethlisberger have all been hit once every 28 seconds or more. Poor Watson is out there getting hit three times for every once Roethlisberger gets hit. It’s amazing Watson is alive.
This look at the numbers has shown a few other things as well. First, it’s fashionable to pile on Eli Manning as a slow, ball-holding, non-mobile quarterback who needs to go so the Giants can all of a sudden be better. Reality shows a far different story. Manning holds the ball 2.61 seconds (shorter than average) yet has been hit 40 times over the first 6 games. That’s once every 15.01 seconds. He’s the 10th fastest quarterback to get the ball out of his hand, yet he’s the 5th most hit quarterback this season. Clearly, most of Manning’s issues reside with the lack of an offensive line. Now, he ISN’T mobile, and therefore his Average Intended Air Yards is only 6.9 per pass, and Average Completed Air Yards is 4.6. To compensate for his lack of legs, and because the Giants’ offensive line is so horrible, Manning has turned to quick routes not far downfield. It takes time for deep routes to develop, and he doesn’t have that time.
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| Manning is in good company playing "fast and short," with Brees, Luck, and Cousins. |
So, next time you hear an announcer say Manning needs to go, remind yourself how horrible it would be if he was replaced with a younger, less experienced quarterback that held the ball too long. That kid might be dead from all the hits.
