Magic 8 Review 3

The Final Four ... number 1's. Booooorrrrringggggg. Hopefully, it will make for good basketball. That's what everyone on TV and in the papers keep saying.

"Oh, the first time in 25 years all four #1 seeds make the final four! What great games we'll have!"

I'm sorry if I don't believe. I want to believe, but they were saying the same things with the Elite Eight, and what happened? The ONLY good game was the one with the double digit seed -- #10 Davidson botches their last possession and loses by two to Kansas.

All other supposedly close games ended up with margins of 19 (UCLA), 18 (Memphis), and 10 (UNC).

Let's review Grant Wahl's Magic 8, now that the Final Four are set.

Results:

1. Georgetown -- WRONG. One 7' Goliath felled by Davidson.


2. Indiana -- WRONG. Dead and gone like their coach.


3. Kansas -- CORRECT. Kansas played well, and I'm still losing by 10 points in my just-for-fun pool (I hope they lose to UNC, or my bracket's shot), but let's be honest -- if the Final Four are the four best teams in the tournament, then Davidson was #5.


4. Louisville -- WRONG. No white suit for Pitino, and no answer for Tyler Hansbrough.


5. Memphis -- CORRECT. I went to the Memphis vs. Texas game (more on that another day), and nobody talks about the baseline ref with the buzz cut that swallowed his whistle the whole first half. There's a reason why Memphis had their way on the offensive end, and it wasn't Texas' D. Now, Texas did everything it could to lose the game on it's own offensive end, yes, but the difference in calls between the baseline ref and the other two referees still makes me wonder -- a properly called game and Texas loses by 7 or 10? Probably. Respectable.


6. Tennessee -- WRONG. Will Bruce Pearl leave for Indiana?


7. UCLA -- CORRECT. They spanked Xavier worse than I thought possible. I pondered my hatred today, and I think I may hate UCLA because of Kevin Love's stupid Backstreet Boys beard.


8. Xavier -- WRONG. The basketball gods emphatically denied my pleas, and saved my bracket. Bummer.

There was a 4% chance that a Magic 8 team would win it all. It's amazing what can happen when the field is halved. Here's the regions:

East -- UNC (0%)
Midwest -- Kansas (100%)
South -- Memphis (100%)
West -- UCLA (100%)

Given my prehistoric mathematical abilities, I'd say the odds of a Magic 8 team winning the championship is now (100% + 50%) x 50% = 75%.

Magic 8 Review 2

The Sweet 16 is over, and so are the dreams of 8 more teams.

After showing you Grant Wahl's Magic 8, I thought it'd be nice to relook after the Sweet 16 was over.

Results:

1. Georgetown -- WRONG. After seeing Davidson defeat them, I felt assured that my seeding of Davidson #5 and Georgetown #4 was correct. After seeing Davidson smash #1 Wisconsin tonight, I fear I was very, very, wrong. How will #3 Davidson fair against #1 Kansas??


2. Indiana -- WRONG. Dead and gone like their coach.


3. Kansas -- CORRECT. In my just-for-fun pool I'm losing by 10 points to a Jayhawk. I hope Davidson slays another Goliath.


4. Louisville -- CORRECT. After Tennessee I would have thought they're a lock for the Final Four ... except they have to play Psycho T and the Tarheels. That'll be tough, but doable, and screw my bracket if it happens. Maybe Pitino should break out his white suit again.


5. Memphis -- CORRECT. They absolutely embarrassed Michigan State, but don't read into it too much. Michigan State should be Mercurial State the way their basketball skills are so labile. Texas also destroyed a Stanford team expected to keep it much closer. Memphis will get it's licks, but Texas will keep on ticking.


6. Tennessee -- WRONG. The Malady did them in, along with sloppy guard play, and suddenly I'm not my mother's favorite son (I convinced her to take Tennessee over UNC to represent the East in the Final Four). Sorry mom.


7. UCLA -- CORRECT. Poor Western Kentucky. I hate UCLA, but not their cheerleaders. Having lived in Southern California twice in my life, I can say honestly, the Beach Boys got it right when they said, "I wish they all could be California girls."


8. Xavier -- CORRECT. My hope continues...if Davidson can spank Wisconsin by almost 20, Xavier can defeat both UCLA and the referees in one game, right? My prayers ascend to Heaven for thee, Xavier, that thy warriors may be strong, win handily, and carry off thine enemy's handmaids into the Final Four.

So, did the odds change?

Before this round, there was a 2% chance that a Magic 8 team would win it all.
Since I don't know Vegas odds for these matchups, we see:

East -- 50%
Midwest -- 50%
South -- 50%
West -- 100%

are the chances straight up of a Magic 8 team making the Final Four. So, there's now about a 4.7% chance that one wins it all.

Magic 8 Review

Now that the first week of March Madness is over, and tonight the second week starts, it is time to look back on the Magic 8 and see what's happened.

Every year Grant Wahl, sportswriter for Sports Illustrated, comes out at the beginning of January with his "Magic 8" -- the 8 teams from which the national champion will eventually come.

Now, these are not necessarily the most talented eight teams, or the teams with the best records, and he's picking them almost a full three months before the NCAA tournament. Pretty impressive that every year since 2000 except 2003, he's accurately predicted the national champion.

So, on January 16, 2008, Wahl selected these teams as his "Magic 8":

1. Georgetown -- WRONG. the "class of the Big East" got an overrated #2 seed. It's easy to be swooned by Roy Hibbert, but let's be honest, they won close games all year with glaring weaknesses. I saw one look at the bracket, and knew well underrated Davidson would send them packing. #2 vs. #10 was more like #4 vs. #5.


2. Indiana -- WRONG. Hard to blame anyone on this one. I knew Sampson would get canned when all the stories hit the presses, but I never thought they'd fall apart like they did. Indiana wasn't even close to the same team after Sampson that it was before.


3. Kansas -- CORRECT. They're still around, and looking more and more like the team to beat. Perhaps I should have taken them to win it all. Unfortunately for them, #5 Davidson or #1 Wisconsin will meet them in the Elite Eight. Neither will go down without a fight.


4. Louisville -- CORRECT. I didn't believe this pick when he wrote it -- given that BYU had beaten Louisville and taken UNC down to the wire. I just didn't think they were amazing. When the bracket came out, I thought they were done for; having to play through Tennessee and UNC to reach the Final Four. But I was wrong. Louisville's playing killer ball, and that's bad for my bracket. Very bad.


5. Memphis -- CORRECT. But I doubt they'll be correct much longer. This isn't hatin' Memphis. They're good. Real good. But I saw them lose to Tennessee and they never fixed that weakness -- free throw shooting at the end of games. Unfortunately for them, they get Texas in Houston, and this shootout at the OK Corral will end with dead Tigers everywhere.


6. Tennessee -- CORRECT. Something about them just doesn't look right these days. Some writers say it's the point guard play, and maybe it is, but I think they have The Malady. The Malady is this deadly airborne disease that starts to infect teams about March, and may become epidemic. It's characterized by symptoms of lackadaisical play, and absence of that killer instinct necessary to win a two week long tournament. You see it with BYU every year in the first round, and Texas A&M showed it for the last five minutes of their game against UCLA (before being robbed). Tennessee had it against Butler, but got lucky and survived. They won't against Louisville, and there goes the other half of my ESPN brackets.


7. UCLA -- CORRECT. For some reason they have a charm around them. How many games have they won because of wrong calls this season? 4? Including the last game against Texas A&M? Everyone seems to think they have the easiest road to the final four (go Western Kentucky!), and that may be true given the money they've OBVIOUSLY slipped under the tables to refs, but I almost put Xavier down on my bracket. They're like Wisconsin -- good enough to be a #1, but not flashy enough to ever get it.


8. Xavier -- CORRECT. Well speak of the Devil! Xavier has the mix of teamwork and experience that should get a lot more credit during March Madness than it has. Will they beat West Virginia? It will be hard, but I think so. Will they beat UCLA and the referees in the Elite Eight? That's a tall order. One or the other, I'd say yes, but both? Two against one just isn't fair in this fight. UCLA's charmed life goes on.

So, in my imperfect mathematical ways, how's he doing?

Well, out of the original eight, six made the Sweet 16. Not bad. 75% remaining.

Odds by region of reaching the Final Four:
East -- 75%
South -- 25%
Midwest -- 25%
West -- 50%

But since not all teams are created equally, let's look at Vegas Watch's predictions:

Instead of the East having a flat 75% chance of one Magic 8 team reaching the final four, we can add up their percentages and see that there's actually a 90.6% chance.

So, the revised regions are:

East -- 90.6%
Midwest -- 61.9%
South -- 37%
West -- 79.5%

So, there's a 90.6 x 61.9 x 50 = 28% chance that an East/Midwest Magic 8 reaches the finals, and a 37 x 79.5 x 50 = 14.7% chance that a South/West Magic 8 reaches the final. Therefore, there's a 2% chance that a Magic 8 wins it all.

I'm hoping for a Wisconsin v. Xavier final.

NCAA Tourney Thoughts

Texas A&M got jobbed. If you look at the close up replay of that last shot, it was no block. The UCLA defender clearly swiped both arms. That said, you could feel it slipping away for the last 5 min of the game, as A&M just seemed to lose that killer instinct and start playing not to lose.

This marks the second year in a row that my BYU Cougars have lost to the #9 seed (Xavier in '07) who has then gone on to almost beat the #1 seed (Xavier lost in overtime to Ohio St.). I guess that gives some vindication that we at least got a good opponent. Just once, I'd like BYU to get a #7 or #10 seed, rather than an #8. At least then you get the #2 in the second game.


Standings for the pool shifted greatly today. That surprised me. "MoJo" jumped into the middle of the pack, while "Heifer International (ESPN)" dropped way out of first place. After mulling it over, the culprit is ESPN's scoring. It gives 10pts per game the first round game for 320 total points, and 20 points per second round game, for 320 total points. Essentialy what that means is that picking poorly the first round hurts you less than picking poorly later on. Since only 8 games were played today, picking one incorrectly was worth 2 of last rounds via points, but is even more precarious because you'll only have 4 games next round.

So if you pick poorly but spread them out in your bracket, that's better than missing everything in one region, where you automatically doom yourself to losing points in the later rounds because neither of your picks made the next game.

That said, since tomorrow another 160 points are up for grabs, anything's possible.

Lightbox Fix

Recently I upgraded from Lightbox 2.03.3 to 2.04. Lightbox is a little more work on my end when posting, but makes the pictures a little more snazzy on yours. I hope you like it.

However, it came to my attention that Internet Explorer (the bane of all the earth) would give an error message when people tried to view my page.

Well, that wouldn't do, since I have all of 5 readers (thank you!) and I don't want to lose them. Some lucky troubleshooting, and the culprit was found -- Lightbox!

For some reason, I could load specific post pages, but not the main page. No other webpage was affected. That meant it was specific to my webpage, and specific to my general rules. I remembered that the only two things of note I had done recently to my blog was add a Paypal button and upgrade Lightbox. So, I got rid of the Paypal button and nothing happened. I got rid of Lightbox, and "bam!" everything worked. I reinstalled Lightbox 2.03.3 and things seem to be working fine in both IE and Firefox.

So, please let me know if you're having issues viewing my webpage or images.

And here's a friendly word of advice: Go Firefox.

The World's Conscience

"If freedom-loving people throughout the world do not speak out against China's oppression in China and Tibet, we have lost all moral authority to speak on behalf of human rights anywhere in the world, ... The situation in Tibet is a challenge to the conscience of the world." (Nancy Pelosi, US House Speaker, March 21, 2008)

via CNN.com

TBE Play For A Cause

Ok, so the tourney has started. Not everything went as planned. My idea of having a pool that donated money instead of taking it, has come to fruition, but not everyone got into the ESPN group on time.

That's four people in the pool. Not much, but not bad for a last second idea. And the winner will get $40.

So far, the organizations that our being represented are:

Students for a Free Tibet
National Ovarian Cancer Alliance
Heifer International

I will update this with the other organizations as I find them out.

Notice: Also, because of the mixup in posting brackets (some posted on FanNation and others on ESPN and one that ESPN didn't accept because of server backlog...) I am making it clear that I am using my bracket on ESPN, because that was my original intention, even though as of right now it is doing worse than my FanNation bracket. I must be fair. Also, in case the scoring is different between the two sites, we will use the ESPN scoring also. I don't foresee that being an issue.

Good luck!

A Rockin' Bracket

Now that March Madness is upon us, and all my loyal readers are going to sign up for my TBE Play for a Cause pool, so we can help people less fortunate, why not take a five minute break and fill out and head to 94WYSP Philly's Rock Station.

They have joined March Madness by creating the ultimate Rock Band playoff. Who do you like? Pearl Jam? Led Zepplin? Maybe it's a dark horse, like Staind?

FYI, the Jennifer Reed region is so stacked, U2 got a 5 seed. Yes, that's right, a 5 seed. Nirvana got a 2 seed in the Spike region.

They'll play two songs from each band at the times shown on their website, and then people text message who they vote for. Winner moves on. Prizes include a 42" HDTV.

So, in the immortal words of Jack Black, "Rock on!!"

College Gets Rick Rolled

If you've never been Rick Rolled, you might not find this as funny as I did.

I laughed straight through the whole video. The guy dressed in the trenchcoat is awesome.

If you don't know what I'm talking about, click this link for an explanation.

Youtube video of College Bball game.

Emmy-worthy Reporting

Today on CNN, there is a video about a man who ran naked through a supermarket and trashed it. Chris Cekot, from WHTM in Pennsylvania, reports, and the presentation is superb. Typically, I have a low bar of expectations for quality, especially when it's MSM, and ESPECIALLY in local MSM. However, this is High Quality stuff.

Watch the video and pay attention to the shots. I especially love the chicken breast and hot dog shots.

Tibet and Bjork

Where much is given, much is required

One of the comments in my last post about Tibet basically asked the cogent question, what can little old I do for something like Tibet? With so many causes out there, what do I support, or do I focus on bettering myself?

Well, the answer is not cut and dry. Obviously, circumstances dictate how you get involved and in what you involve yourself. Let's be honest, Joe Schmo no-name can write letters and give money, or educate others (and should), but his direct effect on the leaders and issues is small. His value often comes in addition to thousands of other Joes who together, make a formidable force.

Well known people -- athletes, movie stars, politicians -- occupy a different position. Where much is given, much is required. They often can use their popularity to sway public opinion, or their proximity to politicians/national leaders to change public policy.

Unfortunately, most people in that situation take their money and run. They focus on themselves. They have the luxuries -- the big house, nice cars, fancy clothes -- and give little to charities, and do even less for local or international issues. Those that do should be lauded for their actions and in the hopes that more stars will follow suit.

Bjork is an international music star. Her genre isn't incredibly popular in the United States, but she is well known world-wide, and recently played a concert in Shanghai. Beijing Wide Open relates the story of how Bjork played one of her well known singles -- Declare Independence -- and then shouted "Tibet! Tibet!" and "Raise your flag!" Go read more about it (it also has a Youtube video of her music video embedded). Now that China is putting Tibet under armed lockdown, and people are reportedly being killed, we need more of this, now.

Bjork is now one of my favorite artists, and Declare Independence has become one of my favorite songs.

Here is a video of Bjork hailing Tibet at the end of her performance:

March Madness TBE Pool

My two loves are international affairs/politics and sports. Last night I was thinking, maybe I can combine the two? However, this thought requires active participation from more than myself.

I've been posting recently about Tibet, and Sara asked, rightly, what could we peons do. Here's my idea:

I will create a 2008 NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament Pool for any and all readers of The Bleeding Ear. However, this pool will require money. Perhaps $10 a person? Ok? Each participant will play for the charity/NGO/world cause of their choice (stated when signing up as the name of their bracket), and the winning cause will get all the money.

Perhaps I will be the only one playing, and some cause will get $10. But if more people play, we could conceivably give $50, or $100 to a cause (I don't harbor great expectations about the readership of my blog). I think this is a great way to merge a fun time (March Madness) with doing something good for the world, and by joining together, we can give more than any of us could individually.

I know the tourney starts in 2 or 3 days, so time is of the essence. This is also a rough draft, so I haven't decided where TBE should host the pool, if $10 is a good amount per entrant, or how to properly transfer money.

Please let me know what you think about my idea, and any suggestions you have for the issues I just related.

UPDATE 1 (16:27): I've looked into a few things, and I've found that:

1. I think the easiest way to do brackets, will be to go to Seth Davis Bracket Challenge at Sports Illustrated's FanNation.

This allows everyone one bracket -- very easy to fill out.

You will be required to create a FanNation account, and make sure to make your nickname/screenname the cause of choice (because that's also the name of your bracket).

Then you join the "TBE Play for a Cause" Pool (yet to be made).

The bonus is that you could also win prizes from SI if you're really good.

2. I have a Paypal account, and I can set up a Donate button on my blog where people can donate the $10. That would make the money changing secure.

(This requires a requisite amount of trust in yours truly of course.)

I do not think this requires you to have a Paypal account, since many sites have donation buttons.

I would need to call Paypal and/or the causes of choice to make sure there's a way to get the money from Paypal to the cause. Paypal's website says if something has an email address -- even if it doesn't have a Paypal account -- it can get the money.

3. Let me know your thoughts on these updates. And talk to friends. The more people the merrier (and the more money that would go to a worthy cause).

Update 2 (19:40): I've done some more research, and the best place for the bracket is ESPN.

After you donate to Paypal,

1. Go to ESPN's Tournament Challenge and either sign in or sign up.

2. Once you have a profile, create a bracket and name it after whatever cause you want to play for.

3. Click the "My Groups" tab, and search private groups for "TBE Play For a Cause" (already made). Join the group (password: TBE)

4. Finish filling out your bracket and have fun watching the tourney!

Update 3 (19:54): Here's the Paypal donation link:

Update 4 (13:05, 20080321): Paypal donation link rescinded. Tournament started.

Tibet

the United States of America is an impotent man

Many of you know me personally, and many more know me via this blog, but few -- I think -- know what I feel passionate about. Conversations I have typically revolve around American politics, Vietnam, medical school, or my new son -- those things that most interest those I associate with here in America.

However, when I'm by myself, I think and debate with my soul about other things. Over the years, I have become increasingly more libertarian, and I can explain why to any who want to listen. Most don't, so I have never elaborated. One of the core stakes on which I rest this philosophical shift, is my belief in the writings of John Locke.

It was he, the enlightenment writer, who coined the platform that holds up the scaffolding of our country. His writings were the basis for Thomas Jefferson's Declaration of Independence. In other words, John Locke justified the existence of the United States of America.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. ... (Declaration of Independence, 1776)

Since 1950, China has ruled Tibet. It has not been a nice rule. Most everyone who learned about the Trail of Tears in school (America's forced relocation of Cherokee Indians from Georgia to Oklahoma) was saddened by what I think is now universally seen as a horrible move. China's occupation of Tibet has been the same. Thousands of Tibetans left their traditional homeland to live as refugees in Nepal and India, while the Chinese government forcibly relocated thousands of native Chinese into Tibet in order to "dilute" the population still remaining.

The Trail of Tears, oil on canvas by Robert Lindneux, 1942; in the Woolaroc Museum, Bartlesville, Okla., U.S. The Granger Collection, New York

Over the last couple days, to commemorate the failed revolution of 1959, Tibetans have been holding peaceful protests inside and outside Tibet, only to be met with police brutality inside, and forced opposition in India.

Photograph obtained exclusively by FRANCE 24 shows burned cars in the Tibetan capital Lhasa on March 14.

..."— That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. ... (Declaration of Independence, 1776)

The problem with America today is not that we dabble in the affairs of foreign countries, but that we forget our very soul, written in black and white, and ratified July 4, 1776. Instead of worrying about Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel, we should be in Sudan, Burma, and Tibet. If America supported people according to the words with which we justify our existence, instead of trying to mediate squabbles between Jews and Arabs, perhaps we would not be looked down on in the world. Perhaps we would not be seen as hypocritical. Perhaps we wouldn't have terrorist plots.

... "But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. (Declaration of Independence, 1776)

The problem with America today is ... that we forget our very soul

Instead the United States of America is an impotent man, and those peoples who truly need us, whose situations mirror our own just 232 years ago, struggle against odds, alone.

I encourage everyone to open your eyes. Stop being consumed with your own lives, your worries about where to eat tonight, or what shirt to buy, or why so-and-so at the office is so annoying. I know it's easy, and I get caught up in it too -- only worried about when is the next medical school test -- but awake! Become aware of the travails of your fellow brothers and sisters. Visit sites like Unseen Dharamsala, which chronicle in pictures the lives of Tibetan refugees, or Beijing Wide Open -- the blog of a Tibetan leader of Students for a Free Tibet.

Help our generation's George Washington and Thomas Jefferson realize the blessings we take for granted.

Which Primary 2

every political campaign is a year long game of Rochambeau

Well, the Texas hullabaloo is over, and so are my exams. All that means is I can give you feedback for what went down.

I picked a primary -- Democrat. Gasp! My parent's give me the look "oh really?"...my grandmother claps for joy (it's FDR's party -- the only true party).

I had to vote early because of exams. Early voting was at the Fiesta Supermarket. I got there thinking I could get in and out, and head back to studying for pharmacology, but boy, was I wrong. I was greeted with these views (see pics):

more pics:[2][3][4]

Clearly, I was in for a treat. It turned out to be a 45 minute wait for a five minute vote. Texans were taking their voting seriously.

One funny aside -- situational irony -- I grabbed a shot of an American flag over the "Hispanic" and "International" food isles, with Chinese take-out to the right, as we're all waiting to vote. ONLY in America...

more pics:[2]

For me, the choice came down to three things. First, Republicans had ballot initiatives to determine their party platform. Did I want a say in that? Second, Clinton and Obama were fighting desperately for Texas while McCain had everything pretty nearly locked up. Should I vote in the contested election? Third, most laws that affect us are local. Do I vote for the 18 contested local Democratic primaries or 16 contested local republican primaries?

The answer to the three questions were: 1) yes, 2) yes, and 3) 18 is more than 16, so 18 it is. That was 2 to 1 Democrat, and I registered Democrat.

My vote went to Clinton.

No surprise there. I did it because,

1. Clinton has MORE EXECUTIVE experience than Obama, which I think is necessary if you're going to be the most powerful executive in the world.
2. Clinton was losing to Obama, and I wanted to see her close the gap and bring the contest all the way to the national convention -- which I feel is good for the Democratic party and America as a whole.
3. Lately, with the things Obama has said, and then the stories that were retracted (NAFTA, etc), I see Obama's message of hope as more and more empty -- like a snake oil salesman.

a 45 minute wait for a five minute vote

But in reality, what I've seen is that Clinton has persisted with her "fighting words," and the bobbling-heads of the MSM have jumped all over it.

"It's very difficult to argue that the level of scrutiny of Barack Obama has been the same as the level of scrutiny of other candidates" says the Washington Post.

Will this push her to the Democratic nomination? I don't know. She waited too long to start. I have this feeling that she will pull it out, with the Superdelegates, but with the Florida/Michigan fiasco up in the air, nobody in the Democrats really knows anything right now. I do feel that Clinton is the stronger general election candidate, because I think the Republicans will go mean and dirty early and often. Look at the 2000 and 2004 presidential campaigns. Perhaps it was Rove, but I think it's more general. The Republicans play to win, and they will train all guns on the Democratic nominee. Clinton, I feel, can withstand that barrage (and dish some of her own) better than Obama would. But we'll see.

Ultimately, what it comes down to is that every political campaign is a year long game of Rochambeau. He who stands up longest wins.